Rethinking Resilience: The Outlook for 2021

At a societal and individual level, we continue to deal with the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic while striving to make progress on recovery efforts. The world is contending with a fractured future, where the disparities laid bare by the pandemic and the acceleration of risks such as cyber and climate must be carefully and creatively managed to produce a more sustainable and resilient future for everyone.

Industry at a Crossroads

A disorderly industrial shakeout is currently underway, with businesses under increasing pressure from inward-looking national agendas, greater tech concentration and dependency, and heightened public scrutiny. 

In their immediate response to the pandemic, governments injected substantial stimulus into their economies. The South African Government announced a stimulus package of 500 billion rand ($30 billion) in an attempt to supplement an existing social safety net that already supported 11.3 million citizens with monthly assistance for food and other social services.

Smaller businesses are also facing increasing pressure from major competitors that have been able to leverage their resources to solidify their market position and expand. In the technology sector alone, the largest players made dozens of acquisitions throughout 2020. As governments look to enhance market competitiveness through more interventionist means, businesses may be exposed to more scrutiny or experience ripple effects due to their greater dependence on major technology service providers impacted by tightening regulations. 

Pressures from investors, consumers and employees alike are mounting around key societal issues, from labor and consumer protections to company ethics, inequalities and climate change. By meeting the societal imperative of taking firmer and more active stances on key issues, during this critical recovery period and well into the future, businesses can avoid diminishing their revenue, reputation and access to capital and talent.

Technological Transformations Driving Increasing Cyber Exposures

The pandemic precipitated an unheralded technology revolution for big and small businesses alike. Rapid digitization transformed social and work interactions overnight. E-commerce, virtual conferencing, gaming and streaming all underwent unprecedented growth. By some estimates, internet use in 2020 increased by 30% worldwide.

This rapid digitization also exponentially increased companies’ cyber exposures and created more complex and potentially less secure networks. This year highlighted the failure of cybersecurity measures as a top short-term risk. Moreover, throughout 2020, we have seen increasing cyberattacks on government agencies and companies globally. Comparing the second half of 2019 to the first half of 2020, the volume of cyberattacks doubled, with many leveraging the COVID-19 crisis for an entry point. 

In the Mimecast State of Email Security 2020 report, 53% of South African organisations reported increased phishing attacks and 46% reported increased incidences of impersonation fraud in compared to the previous year. The coronavirus pandemic only served to accelerate the volume of attacks: a report found a 75% increase in impersonation fraud in South Africa over the first 100 days of the pandemic. Another massive breach of data exposed the personal information of up to 24 million South Africans and nearly 800,000 businesses.

This monumental shift could create potential catastrophic risks on a longer horizon. The rush toward digitization, in response to the need for efficiency and reduced on-site labor, may further expose businesses to unforeseen security, regulatory, financial and ethical risks, particularly with more socially activist consumers and workforces concerned with further job losses.

Creating a More Resilient and Sustainable Future

In a year when the pandemic and its cascading impacts were a primary focus, environmental risks retained top spots as the most likely and consequential risks over the next decade. This should come as no surprise, with 2020 one of the costliest years on record for natural hazards and with the pandemic complicating responses to extreme weather events. This has forced conversations on how we understand, prepare and manage risks — particularly emerging and complex risks — in a fast-changing environment.

At the continental level, Africa must sustain unity and solidarity in its approach to the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Africa considers that the (sustainable development goals) SDGs should address priority areas such as access to affordable/sustainable energy, sustained economic growth and combating land degradation and desertification, drought and deforestation;

The funding dedicated to such efforts has dispelled the myth that governments do not have the financial capacity or will to support more rapid decarbonization and energy-efficiency transitions. Lower consumption levels and demand for oil, if they persist, also may provide grounds for further accelerating regulatory action. 

Business will benefit from investing in sustainability transitions now, leveraging increasing government-provided incentives, rather than risking forced timetables and a more disorderly and costly transition. By keeping an eye on potentially high-impact events across the risk landscape, and by evolving into more prepared and responsive organizations, businesses should be able to enhance their resilience and successfully navigate the risks and opportunities ahead.